Search Results
Briefing
Are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Asymmetric?
Economic research on the size of the fiscal multiplier has assumed that the effects of changes in government spending are symmetric ? that is, they influence economic output to the same degree whether the change is an increase or a decrease. Richmond Fed research indicates that this is not the case; the fiscal multiplier does vary according to the direction of the fiscal action and also varies with the stage of the economic cycle. This finding sheds light on likely outcomes of fiscal policies and helps account for inconsistent estimates of the multiplier in the literature.
Speech
Economic research and stress testing
Remarks at the Fourth Annual Stress Test Modeling Symposium, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Boston, Massachusetts.
Speech
Economic Outlook, October 2016
Both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate are performing quite well. Labor markets continue to produce jobs faster than the working age population is growing. Inflation has been running below the Fed’s 2 percent target, but it has moved back toward that goal, and inflation expectations remain anchored.A benchmark of the Fed’s behavior in past periods of relatively successful monetary policy makes a strong case for raising the Fed’s policy interest rate above its current low level. While inflation may seem like a distant concern right now, history suggests that pre-emptive increases in the ...
Speech
Economic Outlook, January 2017
The current economic expansion has been both longer and slower than past expansions. GDP growth has been held back by low productivity growth and slow growth of the labor force.The unemployment rate is low by historical standards, the result of strong employment growth. However, current employment growth is likely faster than needed to keep up with the growth of the working age population, which suggests employment growth will continue to slow.While the outlook for fiscal policy is uncertain, some fiscal stimulus seems possible. This might provide a slight boost to GDP growth, although it is ...
Speech
Economic Outlook, February 2017
The current economic expansion has been both longer and slower than past expansions. GDP growth has been held back by low productivity growth and slow growth of the labor force.The unemployment rate is low by historical standards, the result of strong employment growth. However, current employment growth is likely faster than needed to keep up with the growth of the working-age population, which suggests employment growth will continue to slow.While the outlook for fiscal policy is uncertain, some fiscal stimulus seems possible. This might provide a slight boost to GDP growth, although it is ...