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Journal Article
Searching for Maximum Employment
Albert, Sarah; Valletta, Robert G. (2022-02-07)
How well the economy is progressing toward the Federal Reserve’s goal of maximum employment is reflected in a range of indicators that evolve over time. Beyond the unemployment rate, two key metrics of labor market health are the labor force participation rate and the employment-to-population ratio. The aging of the population is reducing the levels of both measures, implying that they are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic highs. However, these two indicators remain well below their demographic trends, and analysis suggests that they will not recover to trend until 2024.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 02 , Pages 06

Moving up, falling back or staying still: How income mobility in Texas differs by race, ethnicity
Crockett, Anna (2024-07-19)
This article analyzes how different demographic groups can climb the income ladder and move into higher-income groups.
Dallas Fed Communities

Journal Article
Aging, Deflation, and Secular Stagnation
Braun, R. Anton (2022-10-06)
Prior to the COVID pandemic, industrialized countries experienced a sustained episode of low inflation, low real interest rates, and low per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth. As the logistical and other disruptions created by the COVID pandemic fade, will industrialized economies once again face downward pressure on prices, real interest rates, and output growth? We present evidence that the aging of the population was depressing the inflation rate, as well as real interest rates and GDP growth, prior to the COVID pandemic. Aging is ongoing in industrialized countries, and it will ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2022 , Issue 13

Texas natives likeliest to ‘stick’ around, pointing to state’s economic health
Pranger, Ana; Orrenius, Pia M.; Zavodny, Madeline (2023-08-29)
Based on a calculation measuring the share of people born in each state who still live there, Texas is the nation’s “stickiest” state. The natives aren’t leaving.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
From Population Growth to TFP Growth
Sanchez, Juan M.; Inokuma, Hiroshi (2023-03-27)
Using a firm-dynamics model that has been extended to include endogenous growth, we examine how population growth influences total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The most important theoretical result is that the shape of a business's productivity life-cycle profile determines the direction of the impact of population growth on TFP growth. Following that, the model is calibrated for Japan and the United States. The main finding of examining balanced growth paths (BGPs) with various rates of population growth is that the effect on TFP growth is sizable. Japan's expected decline in population ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-006

Discussion Paper
Inflation and Japan's Ever-Tightening Labor Market
De Paoli, Bianca; Wheeler, Harry; Klitgaard, Thomas (2016-11-14)
Japan offers a preview of future U.S. demographic trends, having already seen a large increase in the population over 65. So, how has the Japanese economy dealt with this change? A look at the data shows that women of all ages have been pulled into the labor force and that more people are working longer. This transformation of the work force has not been enough to prevent a very tight labor market in a slowly growing economy, and it may help explain why inflation remains minimal. Namely, wages are not responding as much as they might to the tight labor market because women and older workers ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20161114

Report
Home Improvement Lending in the Third Federal Reserve District: Patterns by Income, Race, and Gender
Carlin, Alex (2018-12)
Historically, local, state, and federal policies in the U.S. have encouraged households of all backgrounds to pursue homeownership because of the various benefits of owning a home, such as wealth building, protection against housing cost inflation, and psychological well-being, among others.1 Research has demonstrated that the financial, physical, and psychological benefits associated with owning a home have accrued to homeowners of all stripes. However, LMI, minority, and elderly households often face financial barriers to sustaining homeownership over the long run.
Cascade Focus

Individuals, married couples respond differently to U.S. income tax changes
Borella, Margherita; De Nardi, Mariacristina; Pak, Michael; Russo, Nicolò; Yang, Fang (2024-11-19)
Changes in effective income taxes can impact labor supply with different outcomes for married couples and singles, and changes can have a particularly notable impact on married women.
Dallas Fed Economics

As population trends shift, where will future workers come from?
Wynne, Mark A.; Derr, Lillian (2025-01-07)
Population is a fundamental determinant of a country’s productive capacity. More specifically, labor, along with capital and the efficiency with which the two can be combined (total factor productivity) determine how much a country can produce at any point in time.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
From Population Growth to TFP Growth
Sanchez, Juan M.; Inokuma, Hiroshi (2023-03-27)
Using a firm-dynamics model that has been extended to include endogenous growth, we examine how population growth influences total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The most important theoretical result is that the growth rate of surviving old businesses is a "sufficient statistic" to determine the direction and the magnitude of the impact of population growth on TFP growth. Following that, the model is calibrated for Japan and the United States. The main finding of examining balanced growth paths (BGPs) with various rates of population growth is that the effect on TFP growth is sizable. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-006

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