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Working Paper
What was behind the M2 breakdown?
A deterioration in the link between the M2 monetary aggregate and GDP, along with large errors in predicting M2 growth, led the Board of Governors to downgrade the M2 aggregate as a reliable indicator of monetary policy in 1993. In this paper, we argue that the financial condition of depository institutions was a major factor behind the unusual pattern of M2 growth in the early 1990s. By constructing alternative measures of M2 based on banks and thrifts capital positions, we show that the anomalous behavior of M2 in the early 1990s disappears. Specifically, after accounting for the effect of ...
Working Paper
Payments-related intraday credit differentials and the emergence of a vehicle currency
The U.S. dollar serves as a vehicle currency or medium of exchange in the global foreign exchange markets. After reviewing some of the existing theories on vehicle currencies, the hypothesis put forth is that the dollar's role is linked to the relatively low cost of payments-related intraday credit available to payment system participants. Differences in the types of measures used by payment system operators to reduce settlement and systemic risk in the payment system give rise to liquidity differentials between currencies. ; After reviewing the types of intraday credit facilities extended to ...