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Discussion Paper
Accumulated Savings During the Pandemic: An International Comparison with Historical Perspective
The COVID-19 pandemic gave rise to unprecedented global economic conditions. Due to a mix of government-imposed restrictions and voluntary personal decisions, mobility levels collapsed in March 2020 and subsequently closely tracked the successive waves of the pandemic.
Discussion Paper
An update on Excess Savings in Selected Advanced Economies
In a previous FEDS Note, de Soyres, Moore, and Ortiz (2023), we conducted a comparison of household excess savings across advanced and emerging economies over different historical episodes. In that analysis, we found that the stock of excess savings accumulated during the pandemic in the U.S. was exhausted by 2023Q1, while other advanced economies were not expected to deplete their excess reserve until late in 2023.
Discussion Paper
Assessing China's Efforts to Increase Self-Reliance
Since the beginning of 2018, the United States and China have been increasing tariff rates on each other's imports, spurring debates about a possible fragmentation of trade into blocs of aligned countries (Pierce and Yu (2023), Alfaro and Chor (2023)). Later that year, in a November 2018 speech to workers at a state-owned enterprise, President Xi Jinping mentioned that current events were forcing China to "travel the road of self-reliance."
Discussion Paper
Global trade patterns in the wake of the 2018-2019 U.S.-China tariff hikes
In 2018, the U.S. government announced bilateral tariff increases on a number of Chinese goods. Thus began a tit-for-tat exchange of increasing bilateral tariffs between the U.S. and China until, by the end of 2019, most of the goods traded between the U.S. and China were subject to additional tariffs. In this note, we use Census and UN Comtrade data to study the effects of the 2018-19 U.S.-China tariff hikes on global trade patterns.
Discussion Paper
Why is the US GDP recovering faster than other advanced economies?
Economic performance since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has been very heterogenous across countries. While real GDP in the U.S. has already returned to its pre-pandemic trend, advanced foreign economies (AFEs) experienced a much weaker recovery, both relative to the U.S. and to their own pre-pandemic trend.