Journal Article
The Global Decline of the Natural Rate of Interest and Implications for Monetary Policy
Hong, Sungki; Shell, Hannah (2019-02-01)
A low natural rate of interest in normal times may call for unconventional policy in recessions.
Economic Synopses , Issue 4

Journal Article
How Many People Does It Take to Start a Company?
Werner, Devin; Hong, Sungki (2020-07-07)
The average number of employees at startups has declined over the past several years.
The Regional Economist , Volume 28 , Issue 2

Working Paper
Capital Gains Taxation and Investment Dynamics
Hong, Sungki; Moon, Terry S. (2018-10-31)
This paper quanti?es the long-run effects of reducing capital gains taxes on aggregate investment. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous ?rms, which face discrete capital gains tax rates based on their ?rm size. We calibrate our model by targeting relevant micro moments as well as the difference-in-differences estimate of the capital elasticity based on the institutional setting and a policy reform in Korea. We ?nd that the ?rm-size reform that reduced the capital gains tax rates from 24 percent to 10 percent for the affected ?rms increased aggregate investment by ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-31

Journal Article
Moving In, Moving Out: The Migration Pattern of the Eighth District
Hong, Sungki; Shell, Hannah (2019)
Education and income differed between those leaving and those entering the District states from 2013-2017.
The Regional Economist , Volume 27 , Issue 3

Working Paper
Customer Capital, Markup Cyclicality, and Amplification
Hong, Sungki (2017-04-30)
This paper studies the importance of firm-level price markup dynamics for business cycle fluctuations. Using state-of-the-art IO techniques to measure the behavior of markups over the business cycle at the firm level, I find that markups are countercyclical with an average elasticity of -1.1 with respect to real GDP. Importantly, I find substantial heterogeneity in markup cyclicality across firms, with small firms having significantly more counter-cyclical markups than large firms. Then, I develop a general equilibrium model by embedding customer capital (due to deep habits as in Ravn, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2017-33

Firms Start with Fewer Employees over Last 25 Years
Werner, Devin; Hong, Sungki (2020-09-08)
The average new firm that is less than a year old had 20% fewer workers in 2019 than it did in 1994.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Trends in Startups’ Share of Jobs in the U.S. and Eighth District
Werner, Devin; Hong, Sungki (2020-03-18)
Startups have been representing a smaller share of all jobs within the U.S. and Eighth District in recent years.
The Regional Economist , Volume 28 , Issue 1

Journal Article
Industry Connectivity: A Case Study of the Construction Industry
Hong, Sungki; Shell, Hannah (2018)
Industries most related to the construction industry were hit harder by the Great Recession.
Economic Synopses , Issue 33 , Pages 1-2

Journal Article
Mapping the U.S. Production Network: Identifying Hub Industries
Hong, Sungki; Sun, Qiuhan; Shell, Hannah (2018)
Identifying key suppliers and buyers could help identify the cause of certain economic downturns.
Economic Synopses , Issue 31 , Pages 1-2

Did the Fed’s Dollar Swap Lines Work?
Werner, Devin; Hong, Sungki (2020-11-24)
In March, the Federal Reserve took steps to increase the supply of dollars to foreign markets to ensure liquidity and lessen volatility. Did the policies work?
On the Economy