A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy

RePEc Short ID: pcr107
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7958-1818

Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Giannone, Domenico; Qian, Eric; Sbordone, Argia M.

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A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy

Abstract: We model the United States macroeconomic and financial sectors using a formal and unified econometric model. Through shrinkage, our Bayesian VAR provides a flexible framework for modeling the dynamics of thirty-one variables, many of which are tracked by the Federal Reserve. We show how the model can be used for understanding key features of the data, constructing counterfactual scenarios, and evaluating the macroeconomic environment both retrospectively and prospectively. Considering its breadth and versatility for policy applications, our modeling approach gives a reliable, reduced form alternative to structural models.

Keywords: Bayesian vector autoregressions; conditional forecasts; scenario analyses; financial conditions index;

JEL Classification: C11; C32; C53; C54; E32; E37;