Journal Article

Cyclical implications of the declining manufacturing employment share

Abstract: Over the last 35 years, the U.S. economy has created service sector jobs at a faster pace than manufacturing sector jobs. Not only has this trend led to a significant shift in the composition of the labor force from manufacturing to services, but it has also fundamentally changed the characteristics of the average workplace. ; Some economists have argued that the ongoing structural shifts from manufacturing employment to services employment may have had the additional consequence of smoothing the business cycle. A smoother cycle would be welcomed and would yield several benefits. The economy would grow more stably and would provide a more predictable backdrop for working, saving, and investing. ; Filardo investigates whether the shift from manufacturing to services employment has muted the business cycle. He concludes that the declining manufacturing employment share may have substantially changed the workplace but has had little impact on the smoothness of the business cycle.

Keywords: Employment (Economic theory); Labor supply; Service industries; Manufactures; Business cycles;

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Part of Series: Economic Review

Publication Date: 1997

Volume: 82

Issue: Q II

Pages: 63-87