*** Receive an EMAIL when this list is updated ***
Financial statistics for the United States and the crisis: what did they get right, what did they miss, and how should they change? -- Matthew J. Eichner, Donald L. Kohn, and Michael G. Palumbo
BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. Finance and Economics Discussion Series. 2010-20. Apr, 2010
Abstract:
Although the instruments and transactions most closely associated with the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 were novel, the underlying themes that played out in the crisis were familiar from previous episodes: Competitive dynamics resulted in excessive leverage and risk-taking by large, interconnected firms, in heavy reliance on short-term sources of funding to finance long-term and ultimately terribly illiquid positions, and in common exposures being shared by many major financial institutions. Understandably, in the wake of the crisis, financial supervisors and policymakers want to obtain better and earlier indications regarding these critical, and apparently recurring, core vulnerabilities in the financial system. Indeed, gaps in data and analysis, in a sense, defined the shadows in which the "shadow banking system" associated with the buildup in financial risks grew. We agree that more comprehensive real-time data is necessary, but we also emphasize that collecting more data is only part of the process of developing early warning systems. More fundamental, in our view, is the need to use data in a different way--in a way that integrates the ongoing analysis of macro data to identify areas of interest with the development of highly specialized information to illuminate those areas, including the relevant instruments and transactional forms. In this paper, we describe why we are concerned that specifying this second stage generically and prior to processing the first-stage signals will not be fruitful: We can easily imagine specifying ex ante a program of data collection that would look for vulnerabilities in the wrong place, particularly if the actual act of looking by macro- or microprudential supervisors causes the locus of activity to shift into a new shadow somewhere else--something we argue occurred during the buildup of risks ahead of this crisis.
Access online version
Tips from TIPS: the informational content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security prices. -- Stefania D'Amico, Don H. Kim, and Min Wei
BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. Finance and Economics Discussion Series. 2010-19. Apr, 2010
Abstract:
TIPS breakeven inflation rate, defined as the difference between nominal and TIPS yields of comparable maturities, is potentially useful as a real-time measure of market inflation expectations. In this paper, we provide evidence that a fairly large TIPS liquidity premium existed until recently, using a multifactor no-arbitrage term structure model estimated with nominal and TIPS yields, inflation and survey forecasts of interest rates. Ignoring the TIPS liquidity premiums leads to counterintuitive implications for inflation expectations and inflation risk premium, and produces large pricing errors for TIPS. In contrast, models incorporating a TIPS liquidity factor generate much better fit for these variables and reveal a TIPS liquidity premium that was until recently quite large (~1%) but has come down in recent years, consistent with the common perception that TIPS market grew and liquidity conditions improved. Our results indicate that after taking proper account of the liquidity conditions in the TIPS market, the movement in TIPS breakeven inflation rate can provide useful information for identifying real yields, expected inflation and inflation risk premium.
Access online version
Using a projection method to analyze inflation bias in a micro-founded model. -- Gary S. Anderson, Jinill Kim, and Tack Yun
BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. Finance and Economics Discussion Series. 2010-18. Apr, 2010
Abstract:
Since Kydland and Prescott (1977) and Barro and Gordon (1983), most studies of the problem of the inflation bias associated with discretionary monetary policy have assumed a quadratic loss function. We depart from the conventional linear-quadratic approach to the problem in favor of a projection method approach. We investigate the size of the inflation bias that arises in a microfounded nonlinear environment with Calvo price setting. The inflation bias is found to lie between 1% and 6% for a reasonable range of parameter values, when the bias is defined as the steady-state deviation of the discretionary inflation rate from the optimal inflation rate under commitment.
Access online version
The mechanics of a graceful exit: interest on reserves and segmentation in the federal funds market. -- Morten L. Bech and Elizabeth Klee
BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. Finance and Economics Discussion Series. 2010-07. Feb, 2010
Abstract:
To combat the financial crisis that intensified in the fall of 2008, the Federal Reserve injected a substantial amount of liquidity into the banking system. The resulting increase in reserve balances exerted downward price pressure in the federal funds market, and the effective federal funds rate began to deviate from the target rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee. In response, the Federal Reserve revised its operational framework for implementing monetary policy and began to pay interest on reserve balances in an attempt to provide a floor for the federal funds rate. Nevertheless, following the policy change, the effective federal funds rate remained below not only the target but also the rate paid on reserve balances. We develop a model to explain this phenomenon and use data from the federal funds market to evaluate it empirically. In turn, we show how successful the Federal Reserve may be in raising the federal funds rate even in an environment with substantial reserve balances.
Access online version
The finances of American households in the past three recessions: evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances. -- Kevin B. Moore and Michael G. Palumbo
BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. Finance and Economics Discussion Series. 2010-06. Feb, 2010
Abstract:
The downturn in economic activity in the U.S. that began in December 2007 (as determined by researchers with the National Bureau of Economic Research) has been noticeably deeper and has already lasted considerably longer than the prior two recessions--those beginning in July 1990 and in March 2001. In addition, a key difference between the current and the past two recessions is the extent to which consumer spending and residential investment have dropped since late 2007--that is, the extent to which the household sector appears to have "led" the drop in aggregate economic activity in this recession. This paper uses household-level data from the Federal Reserve Board's series of Surveys of Consumer Finances to document three factors that appear to have contributed to greater financial stress in the household sector in the current downturn compared with the prior two: 1) substantial and widespread reductions in home values that resulted in sizable erosions of home equity and net worth for many homeowners; 2) markedly expanded holdings of corporate equity among middle-income households which lost significant market value, on net, as stock prices sunk; and, 3) greater debt on household balance sheets and overall financial vulnerability around the onset of the 2008-09 recession, particularly for those in the middle of the income distribution.
Access online version
The rigidity of labor: processing savings and work decisions through Shannon's channels. -- Antonella Tutino
BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. Finance and Economics Discussion Series. 2010-02. Jan, 2010
Abstract:
This paper argues that constraining people to choose consumption and labor under finite Shannon capacity produces results in line with U.S. business cycle data. My model has a simple partial equilibrium setting in which risk averse consumers keep high labor supply and low consumption profile at early stage of life to hedge against wealth fluctuations. They rationally choose to keep consumption and labor unchanged until they collect enough information. I find that at high frequency consumption appears to be more sluggish than labor supply. However, when people decide to change consumption they do so by a large amount. This combination leads to higher variance of consumption with respect to labor supply. My model also finds high persistence and strong comovement of consumption and employment and delayed response of consumption and labor with respect to wealth. Furthermore, my framework generates endogenously a wedge between marginal rate of substituition and marginal rate of transformation or wages. Such wedge is bigger and more volatile the lower information flow. These findings suggest that rational inattention offers a promising avenue to bridge the gap between theory and U.S. business cycle data.
Access online version
Evolving macroeconomic perceptions and the term structure of interest rates. -- Athanasios Orphanides and Min Wei
BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. Finance and Economics Discussion Series. 2010-01. Jan, 2010
Abstract:
We explore the role of evolving beliefs regarding the structure of the macroeconomy in improving our understanding of the term structure of interest rates within the context of a simple macro-finance model. Using quarterly vintages of real-time data and survey forecasts for the United States over the past 40 years, we show that a recursively estimated VAR on real GDP growth, inflation and the nominal short-term interest generates predictions that are more consistent with survey forecasts than a benchmark fixed-coefficient counterpart. We then estimate a simple term structure model under the assumption that the investors' risk attitude is driven by near-term expectations of the three state variables. When we allow for evolving beliefs about the macroeconomy, the resulting term structure model provides a better fit to the cross section of yields than the benchmark model, especially at longer maturities, and exhibits better performance in out-of-sample predictions of future yield movements.
Access online version
Are Chinese exports sensitive to changes in the exchange rate? -- Shaghil Ahmed
BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. International Finance Discussion Papers. 987. Dec, 2009
Abstract:
This paper builds a model of two types of Chinese exports, those processed and assembled laregely from imported inputs ("processed" exports) and "non-processed" exports. Based on this model, the sensitivity of Chinese exports to exchange rate changes is empirically examined. Unlike previous work, the estimation period includes the net real appreciation of the renminbi that has occurred over the past three years. The results show that greater exchange rate appreciation dampens export growth, both for non-processed and processed exports, with the estimated cumulative price elasticity being substantially greater than unity. When the source of the increase in the Chinese real exchange rate is appreciations against the currencies of other emerging Asian trading partners, the effect on processing exports is positive but insignficant, while the effect on non-processing exports is significantly negative. By contrast, when the source of the increase in the Chinese real exchange rate is appreciation against China's advanced-economy trading partners, the effects on both types of exports are negative. These results are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model. Counterfactual simulations based on the estimated model strongly suggest that if the trade-weighted real renminbi had appreciated at an annual rate of 10 percent per quarter since mid-2005, Chinese real exports would have been roughly 30 percent lower today. Thus greater exchange rate flexibility could contribute to lowering China's huge trade surplus through restraining growth of exports.
Access online version
Diversification across characteristics. -- Erik Hjalmarsson
BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. International Finance Discussion Papers. 986. Dec, 2009
Abstract:
I study long-short portfolio strategies formed on seven different stock characteristics representing various measures of past returns, value, and size. Each individual characteristic results in a profitable portfolio strategy, but these single-characteristic strategies are all dominated by a diversified strategy that places equal weight on each of the single-characteristic strategies. The benefits of diversifying across characteristic-based long-short strategies are substantial and can be attributed to the mostly low, and sometimes substantially negative, correlation between the returns on the single-characteristic strategies.
Access online version
Financial literacy and subprime mortgage delinquency: evidence from a survey matched to administrative data. -- Kristopher Gerardi, Lorenz Goette, and Stephan Meier
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA. Working Paper. 2010-10. Apr, 2010
Abstract:
The exact cause of the massive defaults and foreclosures in the U.S. subprime mortgage market is still unclear. This paper investigates whether a particular aspect of borrowers' financial literacy—their numerical ability—may have played a role. We measure several aspects of financial literacy and cognitive ability in a survey of subprime mortgage borrowers who took out mortgages in 2006 or 2007 and match these measures to objective data on mortgage characteristics and repayment performance. We find a large and statistically significant negative correlation between numerical ability and various measures of delinquency and default. Foreclosure starts are approximately two-thirds lower in the group with the highest measured level of numerical ability compared with the group with the lowest measured level. The result is robust to controlling for a broad set of sociodemographic variables and not driven by other aspects of cognitive ability or the characteristics of the mortgage contracts. Our results raise the possibility that limitations in certain aspects of financial literacy played an important role in the subprime mortgage crisis.
Access online version
Macroeconomic implications of agglomeration. -- Morris A. Davis, Jonas D. M. Fisher and Toni M. Whited
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CHICAGO. Working Papers. WP-2010-02. 2010
Abstract:
The authors construct a dynamic general equilibrium model of cities and use it to estimate the effect of local agglomeration on per capita consumption growth. Agglomeration affects growth through the density of economic activity: higher production per unit of land raises local productivity. Firms take productivity as given; produce using a technology that has constant returns in developed land, capital, and labor; and accumulate land and capital. If land prices are rising, as they are empirically, firms economize on land. This behavior increases density and contributes to growth. They use a panel of U.S. cities and our model's predicted relationship among wages, output prices, housing rents, and labor quality to estimate the net effect of agglomeration on local wages. The impact of agglomeration on the level of wages is estimated to be 2 percent. Combined with their model and observed increases in land prices, this estimate implies that agglomeration raises per capita consumption growth by 10 percent.
Access online version
Comment on "Letting different views about business cycles compete" -- Jonas D. M. Fisher
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CHICAGO. Working Papers. WP-2010-01. 2009
Abstract:
This comment explains why the findings presented in Beaudry and Lucke (2009) are misleading.
Access online version
Structural macro-econometric modelling in a policy environment. -- Martin Fukac and Adrian Pagan
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY. Research Working Paper. RWP 10-08. Feb, 2010
Abstract:
In this paper we review the evolution of macroeconomic modelling in a policy environment that took place over the past sixty years. We identify and characterise four generations of macro models. Particular attention is paid to the fourth generation -- dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. We discuss some of the problems in how these models are implemented and quantified.
Access online version
Impulse response identification in DSGE models. -- Martin Fukac
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY. Research Working Paper. RWP 10-07. Feb, 2010
Abstract:
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have become a widely used tool for policymakers. This paper modifies the global identification theory used for structural vectorautoregressions, and applies it to DSGE models. We use this theory to check whether a DSGE model structure allows for unique estimates of structural shocks and their dynamic effects. The potential cost of a lack of identification for policy oriented models along that specific dimension is huge, as the same model can generate a number of contrasting yet theoretically and empirically justifiable recommendations. The problem and methodology are illustrated using a simple New Keynesian business cycle model.
Access online version
Discretionary monetary policy in the Calvo model. -- Willem Van Zandweghe and Alexander L. Wolman
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY. Research Working Paper. RWP 10-06. Feb, 2010
Abstract:
We study discretionary equilibrium in the Calvo pricing model for a monetary authority that chooses the money supply. The steady-state inflation rate is above eight percent for a baseline calibration, and it varies non-monotonically with the degree of price stickiness. If the initial condition involves inflation higher than steady state, discretionary policy generates an immediate drop in inflation followed by a gradual increase to the steady state. Unlike the two-period Taylor model, discretionary policy in the Calvo model does not accommodate predetermined prices in a way that inevitably leads to multiple private-sector equilibria.
Access online version
The Taylor rule and the practice of central banking. -- Pier Francesco Asso, George A. Kahn, and Robert Leeson
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY. Research Working Paper. RWP 10-05. Feb, 2010
Abstract:
The Taylor rule has revolutionized the way many policymakers at central banks think about monetary policy. It has framed policy actions as a systematic response to incoming information about economic conditions, as opposed to a period-by-period optimization problem. It has emphasized the importance of adjusting policy rates more than one-for-one in response to an increase in inflation. And, various versions of the Taylor rule have been incorporated into macroeconomic models that are used at central banks to understand and forecast the economy. This paper examines how the Taylor rule is used as an input in monetary policy deliberations and decision-making at central banks. The paper characterizes the policy environment at the time of the development of the Taylor rule and describes how and why the Taylor rule became integrated into policy discussions and, in some cases, the policy framework itself. Speeches by policymakers and transcripts and minutes of policy meetings are examined to explore the practical uses of the Taylor rule by central bankers. While many issues remain unresolved and views still differ about how the Taylor rule can best be applied in practice, the paper shows that the rule has advanced the practice of central banking.
Access online version
Euler-equation estimation for discrete choice models: a capital accumulation application. -- Russell Cooper, John Haltiwanger and Jonathan L. Willis
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY. Research Working Paper. RWP 10-04. Jan, 2010
Abstract:
This paper studies capital adjustment at the establishment level. Our goal is to characterize capital adjustment costs, which are important for understanding both the dynamics of aggregate investment and the impact of various policies on capital accumulation. Our estimation strategy searches for parameters that minimize ex post errors in an Euler equation. This strategy is quite common in models for which adjustment occurs in each period. Here, we extend that logic to the estimation of parameters of dynamic optimization problems in which non-convexities lead to extended periods of investment inactivity. In doing so, we create a method to take into account censored observations stemming from intermittent investment. This methodology allows us to take the structural model directly to the data, avoiding time-consuming simulation-based methods. To study the effectiveness of this methodology, we rst undertake several Monte Carlo exercises using data generated by the structural model. We then estimate capital adjustment costs for U.S. manufacturing establishments in two sectors.
Access online version
Training or search? evidence and an equilibrium model. -- Jun Nie
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY. Research Working Paper. RWP 10-03. Jan, 2010
Abstract:
Training programs are a major tool of labor market policies in OECD countries. I use a unique panel data set on the labor market experience of individual German workers between 2000 and 2002 to estimate a dynamic model of search and training, which allows me to quantify the impact of training programs and unemployment benefits on employment, unemployment, output, and the government expenditures. The model extends Ljungqvist and Sargent (JPE, 1998) by incorporating a training decision and a broader menu of unemployment benefits. Government-sponsored training programs feature a key trade-off with respect to unemployment insurance programs: they offer more generous unemployment benefits but require more time and effort from workers to generate higher skills. As a result, unemployed workers with different human capital and benefits make different decisions about training, search, and job acceptance. I use the model to quantitatively study the recent reforms implemented in Germany and run more counterfactual experiments. I simulate the transition path under back-to-back unexpected reforms in 2003-2006 and find the dynamics of the model's unemployment rates are close to the data. In a counterfactual experiment in which I model an economy with a German-like training system and a US-like unemployment benefit structure (roughly, benefits are lower), I find that employment and output rise substantially.
Access online version
Executive compensation and business policy choices at U.S. commercial banks. -- Robert DeYoung, Emma Y. Peng and Meng Yan
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY. Research Working Paper. RWP 10-02. Jan, 2010
Abstract:
This study examines whether and how the terms of CEO compensation contracts at large commercial banks between 1994 and 2006 influenced, or were influenced by, the risky business policy decisions made by these firms. We find strong evidence that bank CEOs responded to contractual risk-taking incentives by taking more risk; bank boards altered CEO compensation to encourage executives to exploit new growth opportunities; and bank boards set CEO incentives in a manner designed to moderate excessive risk-taking. These relationships are strongest during the second half of our sample, after deregulation and technological change had expanded banks' capacities for risk-taking.
Access online version
Inflation targeting and private sector forecasts. -- Stephen G. Cecchetti and Craig S. Hakkio
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY. Research Working Paper. RWP 10-01. Jan, 2010
Abstract:
Transparency is one of the biggest innovations in central bank policy of the past quarter century. Modern central bankers believe that they should be as clear about their objectives and actions as possible. However, is greater transparency always beneficial? Recent work suggests that when private agents have diverse sources of information, public information can cause them to overreact to the signals from the central bank, leading the economy to be too sensitive to common forecast errors. Greater transparency could be destabilizing. While this theoretical result has clear intuitive appeal, it turns on a combination of assumptions and conditions, so it remains to be established that it is of empirical relevance. In this paper we study the degree to which increased information about monetary policy might lead to individuals coordinating their forecasts. Specifically, we estimate a series of simple models to measure the impact of inflation targeting on the dispersion of private sector forecasts of inflation. Using a panel data set that includes 15 countries over 20 years we find no convincing evidence that adopting an inflation targeting regime leads to a reduction in the dispersion of private sector forecasts of inflation. While for some specifications adoption of inflation target does seem to reduce the standard deviation of inflation forecasts, the impact is rarely precise and always small.
Access online version
A simple model of bank employee compensation. -- Christopher Phelan
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF MINNEAPOLIS. Working Paper. 676. 2009
Abstract:
This paper considers the question, Does the limited liability associated with banking make it necessary for a government to regulate bank employee compensation? It attempts to shed light on this question by considering a mechanism design framework.
Access online version
Expectations traps and coordination failures: selecting among multiple discretionary equilibria. -- Richard Dennis and Tatiana Kirsanova
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO. Working Papers Series. 2010-02. Feb, 2010
Subjects:
Monetary policy. Equilibrium (Economics)
Abstract:
Discretionary policymakers cannot manage private-sector expectations and cannot co- ordinate the actions of future policymakers. As a consequence, expectations traps and coordination failures can occur and multiple equilibria can arise. To utilize the explanatory power of models with multiple equilibria it is first necessary to understand how an economy arrives to a particular equilibrium. In this paper, we employ notions of robustness, learnability, and the potential for coalitions to motivate and develop a suite of equilibrium selection criteria. Central among these criteria are whether the equilibrium is learnable by private agents and jointly learnable by private agents and the policymaker. We use two New Keynesian policy models to identify the strategic interactions that give rise to multiple equilibria and to illustrate our equilibrium selection methods. Importantly, although the Pareto-preferred equilibrium is invariably an equilibrium identified by standard numerical iterative solution methods, unless it is learnable by private agents, we find little reason to expect coordination on that equilibrium.
Access online version